To be blunt, Paul Nehlen’s 2016 run was not an electoral success. Between a good amount of media coverage inherent from challenging the cucked Speaker of the House and having Ann Coulter campaign for him he still lost by 68 points. I can’t spin that into a good thing.
What it did was establish him as a solid candidate of the right. There were considerable gains in name recognition, credibility and a desire from people to see him run again. From my extensive research into the district (two anecdotal accounts), it’s a largely cuck district that support RINOs because RINOs are what they want. Conventional wisdom would dictate that Nehlen would use his newfound right-wing street cred to run for Governor or Senator, which should theoretically be more winnable races for him.
Ryan’s high-profile cucking continues unabated, but he may have finally overreached. Polls indicated that he is no longer as popular as he was in 2016, and his negative numbers are higher than his positive numbers. While not good, it isn’t an instant dealbreaker, but it may create an opportunity for Nehlen to strike while he is vulnerable. Ryan’s tax plan was largely panned in polls conducted in the district and voters believe he isn’t the guy he used to be.
Ryan is still very well-funded, and if the primary becomes competitive it is reasonable to assume even more establishment money will flood Ryan’s coffers. Simply not being Paul Ryan will not win the election.
On the other side of the ballot, Democrat Randy Bryce claims to be only 6 points behind Ryan. He has some name recognition from a viral video https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F6zAyPRbels and could expect considerable money to flow in from out-of-state. Even though the likeliest outcome appears to be Ryan keeping his seat, he will have to spend more time campaigning at home and less time campaigning for other GOP candidates throughout the country.
If Nehlen were a normal conservative candidate again the expected outcome would be for him to do better but still lose the primary and for Ryan to win the general. But Nehlen is no longer a normal conservative candidate.
Perhaps he decided to be more honest this time, perhaps he listened to a little more Moonman, maybe it's from talking to voters in his district, but he appears to have taken Ben Garrison lyrics from "Right Wing Death Squad" to heart - "name the jew, blame the jew and when you're online then flame (claim? blame?) the jew." Whatever that last one is, /ourgoy/ is doing it.
Needless to say it's an interesting strategy, and one that will be watched very closely by those in the know about the nose. Due to everything a jew doesn't like being anti-semitism and hate speech and racism and (insert liberal whining here) it's impossible to gauge just how many people understand the JQ, and to what extent.
Nehlen's run has important implications beyond this election. He is naming the jew. He is calling them out on not being White and their Le Happy Merchanting, to their faces (via Twitter). How does this change the dynamic?
Pandora's Box is kicked off the table. It virtually guarantees Ryan all of the oy vey money he can spend if Nehlen starts polling within striking distance. Assuming a Nehlen primary victory Bryce is instantly upgraded to the media's favorite Democrat and Nehlen becomes a Nazi who only won the primary because he gassed all 6 million jews in the district on their way to the polls.
/ourgoy/ dropping Zyklon B from the sky.
What is considered a moral victory has changed substantially. Even if Nehlen has doubled his support from 2016, he would still lose by almost 40 points. Under normal circumstances that would be a failure, but now it moves the Overton window and plants seeds for the future. Perhaps it's even a calculated risk based on voters in his district bringing this to his attention more discretely last time.
At this point in time, it is impossible to know for certain. His chance of victory is different than it was last year, but not necessarily worse.
Vlad did nothing wrong. Pinochet did nothing wrong. Hopefully a year from now we will be saying Nehlen did nothing wrong.