Election day is almost over in Italy and the first exit polls should be happening at about 11pm local time (5pm eastern US time).
Today we will cover Italy’s opinion polls and party popularity & ideology via graphic breakdown.
As an American, it can be a bit difficult to understand European style democracy and party ideologies.
Here we live in a 2 party system, but in Europe, and in Italy things run in a multi-party style with parties making coalitions to form a majority government.
Italian Republic, Senate and Deputies(house) seats
As a consequence of the 2016 constitutional referendum and of two different sentences of the Constitutional Court, the electoral laws for the two houses of the Italian Parliament lacked uniformity. In October 2017, the PD, AP, FI, the LN and minor parties agreed on a new electoral law, which was approved by the Chamber of Deputies with 375 votes in favor and 215 against and by the Senate with 214 votes against 61. The reform was opposed by the M5S, the MDP, SI, FdI and minor parties.
The so-called Rosatellum bis, after Ettore Rosato (PD leader in the Chamber), is a mixed system, with 37% of seats allocated using a first-past-the-post voting and 63% using the proportional largest remainder method, with one round of voting.
The 630 deputies will be elected as follows:
- 232 in single-member constituencies, by plurality;
- 386 in multi-member constituencies, by national proportional representation;
- 12 in multi-member abroad constituencies, by constituency proportional representation.
The 315 elective senators will be elected as follows:
- 116 in single-member constituencies, by plurality;
- 193 in multi-member constituencies, by national proportional representation;
- 6 in multi-member abroad constituencies, by constituency proportional representation.
Let's review the party coalitions and the different types of ideologies they use in governance.
Rundown of Italian Party Ideology
Italy currently has a 2 coalition style government, currently named Centre-Left and Center -Right.
After each election, the parties form a coalition with the leading coalition requiring about 40% of the vote to be legitimized.
Depending on how many seats a particular party takes, a coalition can be formed if parties can come to an agreement on policy and shared ideologies.
As we saw in the Dutch elections, if a coalition of different ideologies forms and the populace is unhappy with it, a coalition agreement could possibly result in a massive loss for members of that coalitions minor groups in the next election series.
Current Popularity of Parties (polling)
As we can see here, the new populist movement is showing up in force, and it looks like the 5 star group could be "going places".
Populist voting blocs in Italy form on both sides of the coalition so a reformation of the current paradigm could happen in Italy.
This could mean bad things for the EU supporters if they were to come to terms and win a plurality of seats.
This is a breakdown of the general opinion of the different parties.
For those of us who followed Trump in America, we can see a commonality in the way the populists have ascended during the campaign.
Th Faces of the Party
We could be looking at a conservative populist coalition in Italy.
The first exit polls will be taking place at about 11pm Local time.
Evening time in America.
Please join us in watching the results and remember to support your favorite group and party members.
For all our Italian anime brothers and sisters, HURRY UP AND VOTE!
Stiamo Andando in Posti
We are going places!
First Exit Poll
Autistic Livestream in English
Previous Coalition V. M5S
Seats allocated if exit polls are correct
Italian Live Coverage
It seems one possible coalition - and not completely outlandish, given that it looks like around 50% of voters have cast their ballots for populist, anti-establishment and/or far-right parties - could be the anti-immigration La Lega, anti-establishment 5-Star, and nationalist Brothers of Italy.